A Lightweight Spatiotemporal Graph Framework Leveraging Clustered Monitoring Networks and Copula-Based Pollutant Dependency for PM 2.5 Forecasting

Mohammad Taghi Abbasi, Ali Asghar Alesheikh and Fatemeh Rezaie ()
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Mohammad Taghi Abbasi: Department of GIS, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran 19967-15433, Iran
Ali Asghar Alesheikh: Department of GIS, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran 19967-15433, Iran
Fatemeh Rezaie: Department of GIS, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran 19967-15433, Iran

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-24

Abstract: Air pollution threatens human health and ecosystems, making timely forecasting essential. The spatiotemporal dynamics of pollutants, shaped by various factors, challenge traditional methods. Therefore, spatiotemporal graph-based deep learning has gained attention for its ability to capture spatial and temporal dependencies within monitoring networks. However, many existing models, despite their high predictive accuracy, face computational complexity and scalability challenges. This study introduces clustered and lightweight spatio-temporal graph convolutional network with gated recurrent unit (ClusLite-STGCN-GRU), a hybrid model that integrates spatial clustering based on pollutant time series for graph construction, Copula-based dependency analysis for selecting relevant pollutants to predict PM 2.5 , and graph convolution combined with gated recurrent units to extract spatiotemporal features. Unlike conventional approaches that require learning or dynamically updating adjacency matrices, ClusLite-STGCN-GRU employs a fixed, simple cluster-based structure. Experimental results on Tehran air quality data demonstrate that the proposed model not only achieves competitive predictive performance compared to more complex models, but also significantly reduces computational cost—by up to 66% in training time, 83% in memory usage, and 84% in number of floating-point operations—making it suitable for real-time applications and offering a practical balance between accuracy, interpretability, and efficiency.

Keywords: air pollution; spatiotemporal graph; clustering; dependency analysis; PM 2.5 prediction; computational efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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