Influence Mechanism, Simulation, and Prediction of Urban Expansion in Shaanxi Province, China

Chenxi Li, Huimin Chen and Yingying Fang ()
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Chenxi Li: School of Public Administration, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China
Huimin Chen: School of Public Administration, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China
Yingying Fang: School of Public Administration, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of urban expansion and its influencing factors in Shaanxi Province, China, as well as simulate future land use and predict the situation and development stage of urban expansion. An understanding of these factors is conducive to the coordinated development of the population, resources, and the economy; the optimization of the urban spatial layout; and the high-quality development of Shaanxi Province. Research methods: With IDRISI Selva17 and the expansion intensity index, the CA–Markov model was adopted to simulate and predict the land use type based on the land use data of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020. The urban built-up areas in Shaanxi Province have been continuously expanding in the past 30 years, especially since 2010, when expansion slightly accelerated, and the expansion intensity changed, first rising and then falling. The Kappa index is as high as 0.70, which further confirms the accuracy of the land use spatial evolution prediction by the CA–Markov model. By combining the urban expansion index with the simulation model, this paper provides an in-depth analysis of the internal relationship between the historical evolution of and future trends in construction land expansion because of the high-quality coordinated development of Shaanxi Province and extends the research perspective with creative ideas.

Keywords: Shaanxi province; urban sprawl; expansion intensity index; expansion rate index; CA–Markov model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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