Analysis of Carbon Storage Changes in the Chengdu–Chongqing Region Based on the PLUS-InVEST-MGWR Model

Kuiyuan Xu, Ruhan Li, Mengnan Liu, Yajie Cao, Jinwen Yang and Yali Wei ()
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Kuiyuan Xu: College of Resource, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Ruhan Li: College of Resource, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Mengnan Liu: College of Resource, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Yajie Cao: College of Resource, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Jinwen Yang: College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Yali Wei: College of Resource, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-27

Abstract: Urbanization-induced ecological problems have affected China’s urban agglomerations since the beginning of rapid economic growth. The InVEST model can be used to study how land use changes affect carbon storage, while land simulation models help project future land use trends and assess the impact of policies on land use, thereby predicting future carbon storage. This study constructs a PLUS-InVEST-MGWR model, corrects carbon storage values in ArcGIS, and thereby analyzes its heterogeneity by MGWR. The economic value of carbon storage is calculated as well. The main findings are as follows: (1) The downward trend of carbon storage in the Chengdu–Chongqing region will continue but slow down to some extent, and only the ecological security scenario can prevent it. (2) In 2015, China’s social cost of carbon (SCC) was CNY 60.83 per ton, with a discount rate of 6.468%, while the economic value of carbon storage (EVCS) in the Chengdu–Chongqing region was CNY 289.516 × 10 9 . (3) Spatial correction of carbon storage is crucial for enhancing the goodness-of-fit and result accuracy of the MGWR model, as the absence of such correction would significantly degrade its performance. The revised InVEST model enables rapid quantification of carbon storage’s spatial heterogeneity.

Keywords: carbon storage; multi-scenario simulation; PLUS model; InVEST model; MGWR; economic value; urban expansion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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