Land Use Transition Under a Tense Human–Land Relationship: A GWR Analysis of Conflicts Between Construction Land and Cropland

Kaichun Zhou, Yulin Li, Zixiang Sun, Junzhu Chen and Binggeng Xie ()
Additional contact information
Kaichun Zhou: College of Geographic Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Yulin Li: College of Geographic Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Zixiang Sun: College of Geographic Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Junzhu Chen: College of Geographic Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Binggeng Xie: College of Geographic Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-23

Abstract: The rapid conversion of cropland into construction land in China poses an increasing threat to national food security. Using high-resolution (30 m) land-use data from 2000 to 2020, obtained from the Resource and Environment Science and Data Center, along with spatial analytical methods such as land-use transition metrics and centroid-based migration models, this study identifies the spatio-temporal evolution and spatial migration patterns of construction land expansion and cropland loss. Combined with multi-source data, including socioeconomic, environmental, and topographic variables, this study employs a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to explore the spatially heterogeneous driving mechanisms of two key indicators: the dependency of construction land expansion on cropland (DEP) and the contribution of cropland loss to construction land (CON). The results reveal that cropland has generally increased in the west and decreased in the east, reflecting expansion in underdeveloped areas and shrinkage in wealthier regions. In contrast, construction land expansion shows polycentric and stage-specific characteristics. Both DEP and CON remain high in major grain-producing areas like the North China Plain. Among the influencing factors, the non-grain production rate strongly inhibits DEP, while chemical fertilizer use significantly promotes CON. The urbanization rate shows a southwest-to-northeast increasing inhibitory effect on DEP and a northeast-to-southwest increasing promoting effect on CON. Local fiscal expenditure and land degradation demonstrate spatially heterogeneous effects. These differences highlight the conflict between low-cost land development priorities and cropland protection policies.

Keywords: human–land conflict; geographically weighted regression (GWR); construction land expansion; cropland occupation; land use transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/8/1660/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/8/1660/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:8:p:1660-:d:1726188

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().