Land Cover Changes in the Rural Border Region of Serbia Affected by Demographic Dynamics

Vladimir Malinić (), Marko Sedlak, Filip Krstić, Marko Joksimović (), Rajko Golić, Mirjana Gajić, Snežana Vujadinović and Dejan Šabić
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Vladimir Malinić: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Marko Sedlak: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Filip Krstić: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Marko Joksimović: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Rajko Golić: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Mirjana Gajić: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Snežana Vujadinović: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Dejan Šabić: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-35

Abstract: The rural border areas of Serbia have been undergoing significant demographic shifts and transformations in land use. Between 2002 and 2022, these regions experienced a continuous population decline, an increase in the average age, and a growing share of single-person households. Simultaneously, there has been a reduction in agricultural land and a noticeable expansion of forested and grassland areas, particularly in hilly and mountainous terrain. This paper aims to explore the interrelationship between demographic indicators and land cover changes in these areas. Pearson’s correlation analysis was applied to data from the national population censuses and the CORINE Land Cover datasets for 1990 and 2018. The strongest positive correlation was found between the decline in the number of households and the reduction in agricultural land. Conversely, the expansion of forested areas showed a negative correlation with most demographic indicators. The findings reflect trends similar to those observed in other Eastern European countries but also reveal specific patterns of spatial marginalization unique to Serbia. In the study, the conclusion leads to the idea that depopulated border areas are in transition between past and future functions that will be influenced by their resource base.

Keywords: rural border areas; land use change; demographic changes; CORINE; Pearson correlation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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