How Can We Achieve Carbon Neutrality During Urban Expansion? An Empirical Study from Qionglai City, China

Xinmei Wang, Dinghua Ou (), Chang Shu, Yiliang Liu, Zijia Yan, Maocuo La and Jianguo Xia
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Xinmei Wang: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Dinghua Ou: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Chang Shu: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Yiliang Liu: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Zijia Yan: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Maocuo La: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Jianguo Xia: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-35

Abstract: While technologies like renewable energy and low-carbon transportation are known to mitigate carbon emissions from urban expansion, achieving carbon neutrality during this process remains a critical unresolved challenge. This issue is particularly pressing for developing countries striving to balance urbanization with carbon reduction. Taking Qionglai City as a case study, this study simulated the territorial spatial functional patterns (TSFPs) and carbon emission distribution for 2025 and 2030. Based on the key drivers of carbon emissions from urban expansion identified through the Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, carbon-neutral pathways were designed for two scenarios: urban expansion scenarios under historical evolution patterns (Scenario I) and urban expansion scenarios optimized under carbon neutrality targets (Scenario II). The results indicate that (1) urban space is projected to expand from 6094.73 hm 2 in 2020 to 6249.77 hm 2 in 2025 and 6385.75 hm 2 in 2030; (2) total carbon emissions are forecasted to reach 1.25 × 10 6 t (metric tons) and 1.40 × 10 6 t in 2025 and 2030, respectively, exhibiting a spatial pattern of “high in the central-eastern regions, low in the west”; (3) GDP, Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and the number of fuel vehicles are the dominant drivers of carbon emissions from urban expansion; and (4) a four-pronged strategy, optimizing urban green space vegetation types, replacing fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles, controlling carbon emissions per GDP, and purchasing carbon credits, proves effective. Scenario II presents the optimal pathway: carbon neutrality in the expansion zone can be achieved by 2025 using the first three measures (e.g., optimizing 66.73 hm 2 of green space, replacing 800 fuel vehicles, and maintaining emissions at 0.21 t/10 4 CNY per GDP). By 2030, carbon neutrality can be achieved by implementing all four measures (e.g., optimizing 67.57 hm 2 of green space, replacing 1470 fuel vehicles, and achieving 0.15 t/10 4 CNY per GDP). This study provides a methodological basis for local governments to promote low-carbon urban development and offers practical insights for developing nations to reconcile urban expansion with carbon neutrality goals.

Keywords: urban expansion; carbon neutrality; emission reduction pathway; territorial space; scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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