Local Land Use Simulation in Migrant-Receiving Xiamen Under National Population Decline: Integrating Cohort-Component and PLUS Models

Cui Li, Zhibang Xu (), Cuiping Wang, Lei Nie and Haowei Wang ()
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Cui Li: State Key Laboratory for Ecological Security of Regions and Cities, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Zhibang Xu: State Key Laboratory for Ecological Security of Regions and Cities, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Cuiping Wang: College of Harbour and Environmental Engineering, Jimei University, Xiamen 361021, China
Lei Nie: State Key Laboratory for Ecological Security of Regions and Cities, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Haowei Wang: State Key Laboratory for Ecological Security of Regions and Cities, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-20

Abstract: China has entered an era of population decline, yet urbanization continues as rural-to-urban migration persists. This demographic transition has prompted a strategic shift in urban development from extensive spatial expansion toward quality-oriented, intensive growth models. However, evolving human–land supply–demand dynamics in cities historically characterized by population inflows remain insufficiently understood. This study focuses on Xiamen, a prototypical coastal migrant-receiving city, to investigate land use simulation under demographic transition. By integrating the cohort-component method with the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, we project Xiamen’s population under three scenarios by 2030: Stable Continuation (SCS), Natural Development (NDS), and National 2030 Population Planning (NPP), with projected increases of 5.56%, 6.76%, and 24.69%, respectively. Results show continued but decelerating population growth, with adequate labor supply and persistent demographic dividend. Notably, the NPP scenario reveals a negative correlation between population growth and construction land expansion. In NPP-High, prioritizing compact development and ecological conservation, population grows by 1.27 million while construction land decreases by 2.85% and forest land increases by 4.09%. This framework provides empirical evidence for compact urban development under the dual constraints of land-use efficiency and ecological protection.

Keywords: population decline; migrant-receiving City; cohort-component method; PLUS model; land use simulation; human–land coordination (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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