Long-Term Trajectory Analysis of Avocado Orchards in the Avocado Belt, Mexico

Jonathan V. Solórzano (), Jean François Mas, Diana Ramírez-Mejía and J. Alberto Gallardo-Cruz ()
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Jonathan V. Solórzano: Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Carretera a Pátzcuaro 8701, Morelia 58190, Mexico
Jean François Mas: Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Carretera a Pátzcuaro 8701, Morelia 58190, Mexico
Diana Ramírez-Mejía: Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
J. Alberto Gallardo-Cruz: Centro Transdisciplinar Universitario para la Sustentabilidad, Universidad Iberoamericana, Prolongación Paseo de la Reforma 880, Mexico City 01219, Mexico

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-21

Abstract: Avocado orchards are among the most profitable and fastest-growing commodity crops in Mexico, especially in the area known as the “Avocado Belt”. Several efforts have been made to monitor their expansion; however, there is currently no method that can be easily updated to track this expansion. The main objective of this study was to monitor the expansion of avocado orchards from 1993 to 2024, using the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm and Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9 imagery. Presence/absence maps of avocado orchards corresponding to 1 January of each year were used to perform a trajectory analysis, identifying eight possible change trajectories. Finally, maps from 2020 to 2023 were verified using reference data and very-high-resolution images. The maps showed a level of agreement = 0.97, while the intersection over union for the avocado orchard class was 0.62. The main results indicate that the area occupied by avocado orchards more than tripled from 1993 to 2024, from 64,304.28 ha to 200,938.32 ha, with the highest expansion occurring between 2014 and 2024. The trajectory analysis confirmed that land conversion to avocado orchards is generally permanent and happens only once (i.e., gain without alternation). The method proved to be a robust approach for monitoring avocado orchard expansion and could be an attractive alternative for regularly updating this information.

Keywords: commodity crop mapping; Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC); land use/land cover change (LULCC); time series analysis; Landsat; gain/loss analysis; remote sensing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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