Land-Cover-Based Approach for Exploring Ecosystem Services Supply–Demand and Spatial Non-Stationary Responses to Determinants: Case Study of the Loess Plateau, China

Menghao Yang, Ming Wang, Lianhai Cao (), Haipeng Zhang and Huhu Niu
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Menghao Yang: College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Ming Wang: School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Lianhai Cao: College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Haipeng Zhang: Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Yellow River Civilization by Provincial and Ministerial Co-Construction of Collaborative Innovation Center, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
Huhu Niu: Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-19

Abstract: Quantitative analysis of ecosystem services (ESs) supply–demand dynamics, and identifying its dominant drivers and the spatial non-stationarity of driving mechanisms, is a crucial prerequisite for effective regional ESs management and the formulation of scientific ecological conservation plans. Previous related studies have primarily focused on the supply–demand balance of specific ESs and the driving analysis of ESs supply. Comprehensive analysis of ESs supply–demand dynamics and research on their spatially heterogeneous response mechanisms remain relatively scarce. In this study, we assessed the supply, demand, and supply–demand matching relationships of ESs on the Loess Plateau (LP) from 1990 to 2023 using a land-cover-based ESs supply–demand quantitative matrix. We then employed Geodetector and Geographically weighted regression model to explore the dominant driving factors and their spatially varying effects on ESs supply–demand relationships. The results revealed that over the past three decades, the continuous decline in ESs supply coupled with the annual increase in ESs demand has led to a worsening trend in ESs supply–demand relationships towards deficit. Fortunately, the LP still maintained a supply-surplus state at present. The proportion of construction land, population density, GDP density, and the proportion of forestland and grassland were identified as key drivers of changes in ESs supply–demand relationships. The expansion of construction land was the most crucial driver of the deterioration in ESs supply–demand relationships on the LP, exhibiting a universally negative inhibitory effect. The proportion of forestland and grassland exerted a regionally wide positive spatial effect, highlighting the critical role of vegetation restoration in improving ESs relationships. The influences of population density and GDP density exhibited a coexistence of positive promoting and negative inhibitory effects across space. Our results emphasize that ESs management policies on the LP must account for the spatial heterogeneity of driving mechanisms, requiring more localized and targeted land use strategies and management policies to enhance ESs sustainability.

Keywords: ecosystem services supply–demand; quantitative matrix; ecosystem services balance; socio-ecological factors; Loess Plateau (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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