Multitemporal Analysis of Tree Cover, Fragmentation, Connectivity, and Climate in Coastal Watersheds of Oaxaca, Mexico

Manuel Juárez-Morales, Juan Regino-Maldonado (), Juan José Von Thaden Ugalde, Fernando Gumeta-Gómez, Alfonso Vásquez-López and Jaime Ruíz-Vega
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Manuel Juárez-Morales: Unidad Oaxaca, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional (CIIDIR), Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Hornos 1003, Col. Noche Buena, Santa Cruz Xoxocotlán 71230, Oaxaca, Mexico
Juan Regino-Maldonado: Unidad Oaxaca, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional (CIIDIR), Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Hornos 1003, Col. Noche Buena, Santa Cruz Xoxocotlán 71230, Oaxaca, Mexico
Juan José Von Thaden Ugalde: Laboratorio de Planeación Ambiental, Departamento El Hombre y Su Ambiente, UAM-Xochimilco, Calzada del Hueso 1100, Col. Villa Quietud, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México 04960, Mexico
Fernando Gumeta-Gómez: Unidad Oaxaca, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional (CIIDIR), Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Hornos 1003, Col. Noche Buena, Santa Cruz Xoxocotlán 71230, Oaxaca, Mexico
Alfonso Vásquez-López: Unidad Oaxaca, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional (CIIDIR), Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Hornos 1003, Col. Noche Buena, Santa Cruz Xoxocotlán 71230, Oaxaca, Mexico
Jaime Ruíz-Vega: Unidad Oaxaca, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional (CIIDIR), Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Hornos 1003, Col. Noche Buena, Santa Cruz Xoxocotlán 71230, Oaxaca, Mexico

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-22

Abstract: The synergistic interaction between landscape fragmentation and climate change poses a critical threat to tropical forests. However, the long-term dynamics of these coupled pressures have been little explored. This study analyzes half a century (1979–2023) of changes in landscape structure and climate across five coastal watersheds in Oaxaca, Mexico a region of high biological and socio-economic diversity. Using multitemporal satellite imagery (Corona, Orthophotos, RapidEye and Planet), we quantified the trajectories of tree cover, fragmentation (Largest Patch Index, LPI; Simpson’s Diversity Index, SIDI), and connectivity (Probability of Connectivity Index, PC); and contrasted these with temperature and precipitation trends. Our results reveal that during the period 1979–2010, there was a slight increase in tree cover accompanied by positive landscape metrics, whereas in the period 2010–2023 a loss of tree cover was observed. Nonetheless, overall, between 1979 and 2023, the analysis indicates a net gain of 59,725 ha of tree cover, a reduction in fragmentation (LPI increased by 26.33% and SIDI decreased by 0.23), and an improvement in connectivity (PC increased by 0.35). During the same period, the average annual temperature increased by 2.3 °C, and precipitation decreased by 219 mm annually. The study concludes that the system is undergoing a transition from a spatial configuration limitation to a climate-induced habitat quality limitation.

Keywords: ecological connectivity; landscape fragmentation; deforestation; landscape structure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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