Petrochemical Risk Assessment in Coastal China and Implications for Land-Use Dynamics

Qiaoqiao Lin, Yahui Liang (), Xue Luo, Zun Liu and Andong Guo
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Qiaoqiao Lin: College of Shipping Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
Yahui Liang: National Marine Environment Monitoring Center, Dalian 116086, China
Xue Luo: College of Shipping Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
Zun Liu: College of Shipping Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
Andong Guo: School of Public Administration, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-23

Abstract: Land-use change and its interaction with petrochemical accident risk are critical for sustainable coastal development. This study established a multi-source data-integrated risk assessment framework, employing fuzzy C-means clustering to stratify petrochemical accident risk into six distinct levels. The analysis revealed the relationship between these risk levels and land-use type changes. Furthermore, the Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy dynamic model was applied to evaluate potential risks at representative coastal petrochemical enterprises. The findings were as follows: (1) Risk concentrates in small-to-medium private, newly established firms, primarily as explosion accidents. (2) The highest risk occurs in Bohai Bay, followed by Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong; national policies have reduced affected zones from 352.61 km 2 (2019) to 43.67 km 2 (2022). (3) The total potential risk zone spans 2986.21 km 2 , with high-risk cores in Hebei, Zhejiang, and Fujian (36.52%) and medium-risk in Shandong Peninsula (32.01%). (4) Risk primarily affects farmland and construction land; urban expansion has increased affected built-up areas from 16.36% (2012) to 47.02% (2022), shifting effects from ecological to combined socio-ecological consequences. These findings provide critical theoretical support and actionable management recommendations for integrating coastal land-use planning, urban expansion control, and coordinated petrochemical risk governance.

Keywords: petrochemical accidents; risk assessment; land-use change; safety management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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