Spatial Association and Driving Factors of the Carbon Emission Decoupling Effect in Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin

Zhiqiang Zhang, Weiwei Wang, Junyu Chen, Chunhui Han, Lu Zhang, Xizhi Lv (), Li Yang and Guotao Cui
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Zhiqiang Zhang: College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Weiwei Wang: College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Junyu Chen: College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Chunhui Han: College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Lu Zhang: College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Xizhi Lv: Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003, China
Li Yang: College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Guotao Cui: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-26

Abstract: Harmonizing economic growth and carbon emissions is key to reaching the “dual carbon” targets. This research centers on the seven key urban agglomerations within the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and establishes an integrated research framework of decoupling effect quantification–spatial association recognition–driving factor analysis. By combining the Tapio decoupling model, a modified gravity model, social network analysis (SNA), and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, the study systematically evaluates the decoupling states, spatial association structure, and driving mechanisms between regional carbon emissions and economic growth from 2001 to 2020. The results show that: (1) All seven urban agglomerations exhibit a simultaneous upward trend in both carbon emissions and GDP, but significant regional disparities exist, with some agglomerations demonstrating a green growth pattern where economic growth outpaces carbon emissions. (2) Weak decoupling is the predominant type among urban agglomerations and their constituent cities in the YRB. Notably, some regions have regressed to growing connection or growing negative decoupling during 2016–2020. (3) The spatial network of carbon emission decoupling effects exhibits a core-periphery structure characterized by stronger eastern regions and weaker western regions, with the Shandong Peninsula and Guanzhong Plain urban agglomerations serving as core nodes for regional linkage. (4) Per capita GDP and technological level play a dominant role in promoting decoupling, while energy intensity and the population carrying intensity of the real economy are the primary inhibiting factors; the impact of industrial structure shows an unstable direction. Grounded in these findings, this study formulates differentiated carbon reduction pathways tailored to regional heterogeneity, providing theoretical insights and actionable guidance to facilitate the low-carbon transition and coordinated governance of urban agglomerations.

Keywords: urban agglomerations; carbon emissions; decoupling effect; spatial association; driving factor decomposition; Yellow River Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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