Landcover Change in Tigray’s Semi-Arid Highlands (1935–2020): Implications for Runoff and Channel Morphology

Kiara Haegeman, Emnet Negash, Hailemariam Meaza, Jan Nyssen and Stefaan Dondeyne ()
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Kiara Haegeman: Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium
Emnet Negash: Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium
Hailemariam Meaza: Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Mekelle University, Mekelle P.O. Box 231, Ethiopia
Jan Nyssen: Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium
Stefaan Dondeyne: Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-21

Abstract: This study investigates how landcover change between 1935 and 2020 have shaped hydrological responses in the semi-arid highlands of Tigray, Ethiopia. Focusing on the Tsili catchment (27.5 km 2 ), it examines links between landcover change, drainage network evolution, and river channel width under conditions of population growth and climate variability. Landcover and drainage maps were derived from historical aerial photographs and satellite imagery for four time steps, and surface runoff was simulated using the SWAT model with uniform meteorological forcing to isolate landcover effects. Results show a 37.6% increase in cropland and substantial declines in shrubland (−29.3%) and forest (−10.1%). River channel width at the outlet widened from 7.5 to 10.5 m, while drainage density increased 1.5-fold. These physical changes aligned with modelled increases in surface runoff. Strong correlations were found between runoff, channel width, drainage density, and landcover types. The findings highlight that cropland expansion—at the expense of natural vegetated land—has intensified runoff and erosion risks. As climate change is expected to bring more intense rainfall to East Africa, this underscores the need for land management strategies that reduce hydrological connectivity and support sustainable agriculture in data-scarce regions.

Keywords: aerial photographs; surface runoff; drainage network; river morphology; SWAT model; Ethiopia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:9:p:1897-:d:1751213

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