Evaluating Future Water Resource Risks in the Driftless Midwest from Climate and Land Use Change

Sagarika Rath (), Sam Arden, Tassia Mattos Brighneti, Sam Moore and Raghavan Srinivasan
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Sagarika Rath: Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Blackland Research and Extension Center, 720 E. Blackland Road, Temple, TX 76502, USA
Sam Arden: Eastern Research Group Inc., 110 Hartwell Ave., Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tassia Mattos Brighneti: Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
Sam Moore: Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Blackland Research and Extension Center, 720 E. Blackland Road, Temple, TX 76502, USA
Raghavan Srinivasan: Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Blackland Research and Extension Center, 720 E. Blackland Road, Temple, TX 76502, USA

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-28

Abstract: Assessing the impacts of future changes in rainfall, temperature, and land use on streamflow and nutrient loads is critical for long-term watershed management, particularly in the unglaciated Driftless Area with steep slopes, erodible soils, and karst geology. This study evaluates the Kickapoo watershed in southwestern Wisconsin to examine how projected climate change and cropland expansion may affect hydrology during the mid- (post-2050) and late century (post-2070). Climate projections suggest temperature increase, wetter springs, and drier summers over the century. Annual average streamflow is projected to decline by 5–40% relative to 2000–2020, primarily due to a 5–15% reduction in groundwater discharge. While land use changes from prairie to cropland had a limited additional impact on streamflow, it increased annual average total phosphorus (TP) by 5.67–10.08%, total nitrogen (TN) by 1.08–2.34%, and sediment by 3.11–6.07%, frequently exceeding total maximum daily load (TMDL) thresholds in comparison to the climate change scenario. These findings suggest that although land use changes exacerbate nutrient and sediment pollution, climate change remains the dominant driver of hydrologic alteration in this watershed. Instead, converting 18% (~290 km 2 ) of cropland to grassland could enhance baseflow (0.84–14%), and reduce TP (30–45%), TN (3–5%), sediment (80–90%), and meeting TMDL 90% of the time. These findings underscore the importance of nature-based solutions, such as prairie restoration, supporting adaptive management to reduce nutrient load, sustaining low flows, and strengthening hydrologic resilience, that support key Sustainable Development Goals. This approach offers valuable insights for other unglaciated watersheds globally.

Keywords: land use change; driftless; SWAT; climate change; stream flow; sediment; nutrients; nature-based solution; Kickapoo watershed; total phosphorous (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:9:p:1919-:d:1754176

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