Modelling Deforestation and Land Cover Transitions of Tropical Peatlands in Sumatra, Indonesia Using Remote Sensed Land Cover Data Sets

Ian Elz, Kevin Tansey, Susan E. Page and Mandar Trivedi
Additional contact information
Ian Elz: Department of Geography, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
Kevin Tansey: Department of Geography, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
Susan E. Page: Department of Geography, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
Mandar Trivedi: Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK

Land, 2015, vol. 4, issue 3, 1-18

Abstract: In Southeast Asia land use change associated with forest loss and degradation is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is of particular concern where deforestation occurs on peat soils. A business-as-usual (BAU) land change model was developed using Dinamica EGO© for a REDD+ Demonstration Activity area in south-east Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia containing Berbak National Park (NP). The model output will be used as baseline land change predictions for comparison with alternative land cover management scenarios as part of a REDD+ feasibility study. The study area is approximately 376,000 ha with approximately 50% on peat soils. The model uses published 2000 and 2010 land cover maps as input and projects land cover change for thirty years until 2040. The model predicted that under a BAU scenario the forest area, 185,000 ha in 2010, will decline by 37% by 2040. In protected forest areas, approximately 50% of the study area, forest cover will reduce by 25%. Peat swamp forest will reduce by almost 37%. The greatest land cover category increases are plantation/regrowth areas (which includes oil palm) and open areas which each increase by 30,000 ha. These results indicate that the site has great potential as an Indonesian REDD+ Demonstration Activity.

Keywords: land cover modeling; tropical peat swamp forest; deforestation; degradation; oil palm; Indonesia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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