Model-Based Synthesis of Locally Contingent Responses to Global Market Signals

Nicholas R. Magliocca
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Nicholas R. Magliocca: National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), University of Maryland, 1 Park Place, Annapolis, MD 21409, USA

Land, 2015, vol. 4, issue 3, 1-35

Abstract: Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a generalized agent-based modeling framework for model-based synthesis to investigate the relative importance of structural versus agent-level factors in driving land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. Six case-study sites that differed in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings were analyzed. Stronger market signals generally led to intensification and/or expansion of agriculture or increased non-farm labor, while changes in agents’ risk attitudes prompted heterogeneous local responses to global market signals. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis as a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science and identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

Keywords: agent-based synthesis system; meta-analysis; effect size; livelihoods; land-use change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:4:y:2015:i:3:p:807-841:d:55879

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