Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Changes Related to Invasive Species and Major Driving Forces in the State of Connecticut

Wenjie Wang, Chuanrong Zhang, Jenica M. Allen, Weidong Li, Mark A. Boyer, Kathleen Segerson () and John A. Silander
Additional contact information
Wenjie Wang: Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, 215 Glenbrook Rd, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
Chuanrong Zhang: Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, 215 Glenbrook Rd, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
Jenica M. Allen: Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, 56 College Road, Durham, NH 03824, USA
Weidong Li: Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, 215 Glenbrook Rd, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
Mark A. Boyer: Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, 215 Glenbrook Rd, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
John A. Silander: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 75 N. Eagleville Road, Storrs, CT 06269, USA

Land, 2016, vol. 5, issue 3, 1-22

Abstract: Land use and land cover (LULC) patterns play an important role in the establishment and spread of invasive plants. Understanding LULC changes is useful for early detection and management of land-use change to reduce the spread of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to analyze and predict LULC changes in Connecticut. LULC maps for 1996, 2001 and 2006 were selected to analyze past land cover changes, and then potential LULC distribution in 2018 was predicted using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Markov Chain (MLP_MC) model. This study shows that the total area of forest has been decreasing, mainly caused by urban development and other human activity in Connecticut. The model predicts that the study area will lose 5535 ha of deciduous forest and gain 3502 ha of built-up area from 2006 to 2018. Moreover, forests near built-up areas and agriculture lands appear to be more vulnerable to conversion. Changes in LULC may result in subtle spatial shifts in invasion risk by an abundant invasive shrub, Japanese barberry ( Berberis thunbergii ). The gain of developed areas at the landscape scale was most closely linked to increased future invasion risk. Our findings suggest that the forest conversion needs to be controlled and well managed to help mitigate future invasion risk.

Keywords: land use and land cover change; multi-layer perceptron; Markov chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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