Identifying Hot Spots of Critical Forage Supply in Dryland Nomadic Pastoralist Areas: A Case Study for the Afar Region, Ethiopia

B. G. J. S. Sonneveld, Cornelia van Wesenbeeck, M. A. Keyzer, F. Beyene, K. Georgis, F. Urbano, M. Meroni, O. Leo, M. K. Yimer and M. Abdullatif
Additional contact information
B. G. J. S. Sonneveld: Amsterdam Centre for World Food Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
M. A. Keyzer: Amsterdam Centre for World Food Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
F. Beyene: College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
K. Georgis: GEOSAS Consultancies, P.O. Box 787, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
F. Urbano: Sustainable Resources, Food Security Unit, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy
M. Meroni: Sustainable Resources, Food Security Unit, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy
O. Leo: Sustainable Resources, Food Security Unit, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy
M. K. Yimer: Water Resource and Irrigation Engineering department. Haramaya Institute of Technology, Haramaya University, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
M. Abdullatif: Afar Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Research Institute, P.O. Box 16, Semara, Ethiopia

Land, 2017, vol. 6, issue 4, 1-31

Abstract: This study develops a methodology to identify hot spots of critical forage supply in nomadic pastoralist areas, using the Afar Region, Ethiopia, as a special case. It addresses two main problems. First, it makes a spatially explicit assessment of fodder supply and demand extracted from a data poor environment. Fodder supply is assessed by combining rainfall-based production functions and rule-based assessment for prevailing land use. Fodder demand is based on a data consistency check of livestock statistics concerning herd size, composition and geographical distribution. Second, individual herd movements have to be evaluated jointly in concurrent migration patterns to assess local pressures on fodder resources. We, therefore, apply a transition model that relates stock levels to seasonal migration routings for all Afar sub-clans jointly so as to localize the hot spots where feed demand exceeds forage supply. Critical areas come to the fore, especially, near fringes of Highlands and in the southern part of the Afar. A sensitivity test shows that ‘Baseline’ scenario is close to the ‘Best’ but under ‘Worst’, the Afar region would fall into despair. We conclude that the model is a useful tool to inform policy makers on critical areas in the Afar region.

Keywords: nomadic pastoralism; spatial migration model; Afar; livestock; fodder demand; fodder supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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