Simulating Stakeholder-Based Land-Use Change Scenarios and Their Implication on Above-Ground Carbon and Environmental Management in Northern Thailand

Melvin Lippe, Thomas Hilger, Sureeporn Sudchalee, Naruthep Wechpibal, Attachai Jintrawet and Georg Cadisch
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Melvin Lippe: Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), Universität Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany
Thomas Hilger: Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), Universität Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany
Sureeporn Sudchalee: Uplands Programme (SFB 564), Chiang Mai Office, 50100 Chiang Mai, Thailand
Naruthep Wechpibal: Uplands Programme (SFB 564), Chiang Mai Office, 50100 Chiang Mai, Thailand
Attachai Jintrawet: Multiple Cropping Centre (MCC), Chiang Mai University, 50100 Chiang Mai, Thailand
Georg Cadisch: Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), Universität Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany

Land, 2017, vol. 6, issue 4, 1-18

Abstract: The objective of this study was to examine whether the coupling of a land-use change (LUC) model with a carbon-stock accounting approach and participatory procedures can be beneficial in a data-limited environment to derive implications for environmental management. Stakeholder-based LUC scenarios referring to different storylines of agricultural intensification and reforestation were simulated to explore their impact on above-ground carbon (AGC) for a period of twenty years (2009–2029). The watershed of Mae Sa Mai, Northern Thailand was used as a case study for this purpose. Coupled model simulations revealed that AGC stocks could be increased by up to 1.7 Gg C through expansion of forests or orchard areas. A loss of up to 0.4 Gg C would occur if vegetable production continue to expand at the expense of orchard and fallow areas. The coupled model approach was useful due to its moderate data demands, enabling the comparison of land-use types differing in AGC build-up rates and rotation times. The scenario analysis depicted clear differences in the occurrence of LUC hotspots, highlighting the importance of assessing the impact of potential future LUC pathways at the landscape level. The use of LUC scenarios based on local stakeholder scenarios offer a higher credibility for climate mitigation strategies but also underline the need to co-design policy frameworks that acknowledge the heterogeneity of stakeholder needs and environmental management frameworks.

Keywords: Northern Thailand; land-use change; above-ground carbon; model soft-coupling; stakeholder-based scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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