The Uneven Influence of Climate Trends and Agricultural Policies on Maize Production in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Sofia Mardero, Birgit Schmook, Jorge Omar López-Martínez, Lizette Cicero, Claudia Radel and Zachary Christman
Additional contact information
Sofia Mardero: Department of Biodiversity Conservation, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur ECOSUR, Chetumal 77014, Mexico
Birgit Schmook: Department of Biodiversity Conservation, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur ECOSUR, Chetumal 77014, Mexico
Jorge Omar López-Martínez: CONACYT—El Colegio de la Frontera Sur ECOSUR, Chetumal 77014, Mexico
Lizette Cicero: Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias INIFAP, Mérida 97130, Mexico
Claudia Radel: Department of Environment and Society, Quinney College of Natural Resources, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
Zachary Christman: Department of Geography, Planning, and Sustainability, School of Earth and Environment, Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ 08028, USA

Land, 2018, vol. 7, issue 3, 1-20

Abstract: Maize is an important staple crop in Mexico, and the recent intensification of climate variability, in combination with non-climatic forces, has hindered increases in production, especially for smallholder farmers. This article demonstrates the influence of these drivers on maize production trends in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula using a mixed methods approach of climatic analysis and semi-structured interviews. Climate trend analysis and generalized additive models (GAMs) demonstrate relationships between production and climatic variability, using 1980-2010 precipitation and temperature data. Data from forty interviews with government officials and representatives of farmers' associations (gathered in 2015 and 2016) highlight the influence of agricultural policy on maize production in the region. The climate trend analysis yielded mixed results, with a statistically significant negative rainfall trend for Quintana Roo and variability in maximum temperature changes across the region, with an increase in Yucatan State and Quintana Roo and a decrease in Campeche. Climate and production GAMs indicate a strong significant relationship between production and climate fluctuations for Campeche (79%) and Quintana Roo (72%) and a weaker significant relationship for the Yucatan State (31%). Informants identified precipitation variability and ineffective public policies for smallholder agricultural development as primary obstacles for maize production, including inadequate design of agricultural programs, inconsistent agricultural support, and ineffective farmers' organizations. Quantifying the influence of climate change on maize production, and the amplifying influence of national and regional agricultural policy for smallholder farmers, will inform more appropriate policy design and implementation.

Keywords: climate variability; smallholder agriculture; subsidies; precipitation; mixed methods; double exposure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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