Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach

Melaku Fitawok, Ben Derudder, Amare Sewnet Minale, Steven Van Passel, Enyew Adgo and Jan Nyssen
Additional contact information
Ben Derudder: Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium
Amare Sewnet Minale: Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
Steven Van Passel: Department of Engineering Management, University of Antwerp, B-2610 Wilrijk-Antwerp, Belgium
Enyew Adgo: Department of Natural Resource Management, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
Jan Nyssen: Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium

Land, 2020, vol. 9, issue 4, 1-17

Abstract: The fast-paced urbanization of recent decades entails that many regions are facing seemingly uncontrolled land-use changes (LUCs) that go hand in hand with a range of environmental and socio-economic challenges. In this paper, we use an integrated cellular automata–Markov chain (CA–MC) model to analyze and predict the urban expansion of and its impact on LUC in the city of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. To this end, the research marshals high-resolution Landsat images of 1991, 2002, 2011, and 2018. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is then used to identify the biophysical and socioeconomic factors underlying the expansion in the research area. It is shown that, during the period of study, built-up areas are rapidly expanding in the face of an overall decline of the farmland and vegetation cover. Drawing on a model calibration for 2018, the research predicts the possible geographies of LUC in the Bahir Dar area for 2025, 2034, and 2045. It is predicted that the conversions of other land-use types into built-up areas will persist in the southern, southwestern, and northeastern areas of the sprawling city, which can mainly be traced back to the uneven geographies of road accessibility, proximity to the city center, and slope variables. We reflect on how our findings can be used to facilitate sustainable urban development and land-use policies in the Bahir Dar area.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process; cellular automata; land-use change; Markov chain; urbanization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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