Analysis of Strategies to Combat Cargo Theft and Robbery in Peripheral Communities of São Paulo, Brazil, Using a Paraconsistent Expert System

Kennya Vieira Queiroz (), Jair Minoro Abe, João Gilberto Mendes dos Reis and Miguel Renon
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Kennya Vieira Queiroz: Graduate Program in Production Engineering, Universidade Paulista—UNIP, São Paulo 04026002, Brazil
Jair Minoro Abe: Graduate Program in Production Engineering, Universidade Paulista—UNIP, São Paulo 04026002, Brazil
João Gilberto Mendes dos Reis: Graduate Program in Production Engineering, Universidade Paulista—UNIP, São Paulo 04026002, Brazil
Miguel Renon: Graduate Program in Production Engineering, Universidade Paulista—UNIP, São Paulo 04026002, Brazil

Logistics, 2025, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Background: Cargo theft represents a persistent challenge to last-mile logistics in the peripheral regions of São Paulo, Brazil, compromising transportation security and increasing operational costs. These high-crime areas disrupt supply chain stability and hinder e-commerce growth. Traditional security methods often fail to address the complexity and uncertainty present in these environments, necessitating adaptive approaches. Methods: This study applies an Expert System based on Paraconsistent Annotated Evidential Logic Eτ to assess the effectiveness of security interventions. Logic Eτ is particularly suited for analyzing uncertain, incomplete, and contradictory data in complex logistics settings. A mixed-methods approach was employed, integrating evaluations from nine experts representing different hierarchical levels within a logistics company. Six key security measures, including GPS tracking, armed escorts, optimized delivery windows, and the hiring of local drivers, were analyzed using favorable degrees and unfavorable degrees for each parameter. Results: The results demonstrated that five measures were effective, contributing to a 58% reduction in security costs in Arujá and 75% in Cajamar, two major distribution hubs. Conclusions: This study highlights the potential of combining Expert Systems and Eτ Logic to enhance cargo transport security, offering a scalable decision support framework for companies operating in high-risk urban regions.

Keywords: cargo theft; peripheral communities of São Paulo; last-mile logistics; paraconsistent expert system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L8 L80 L81 L86 L87 L9 L90 L91 L92 L93 L98 L99 M1 M10 M11 M16 M19 R4 R40 R41 R49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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