Circular Strategic Options for Ethanol Supply Chain Resilience Under Uncertainties Using a Composition of Probabilities Group Decision Model

Edson da Silva Santos, Wesley Douglas Oliveira Silva (), Marcele Elisa Fontana, Pedro Carmona Marques (), Hemmylly Cawanne Pedro, Renata de Oliveira Mota and Vilmar Nepomuceno
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Edson da Silva Santos: Department of Management Engineering, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57309-005, Brazil
Wesley Douglas Oliveira Silva: Department of Management Engineering, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57309-005, Brazil
Marcele Elisa Fontana: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technology and Geosciences Center, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife 50740-550, Brazil
Pedro Carmona Marques: RCM2+, Faculty of Engineering, Lusófona University, Campo Grande 376, 1749-024 Lisbon, Portugal
Hemmylly Cawanne Pedro: Department of Management Engineering, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57309-005, Brazil
Renata de Oliveira Mota: Department of Production Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba (UFPB), João Pessoa 58051-900, Brazil
Vilmar Nepomuceno: Department of Software Engineering, Federal Institute of Pernambuco (IFPE), Recife 50740-545, Brazil

Logistics, 2025, vol. 9, issue 2, 1-26

Abstract: Background : Brazil’s bioethanol supply chain is vital for global energy security and climate action but remains vulnerable to climate disruptions, market volatility, and conflicting stakeholder interests. While resilience strategies exist, they often overlook the potential of circular economy (CE) principles. Methods : This study proposes an integrated decision-support framework that combines Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA), the Composition of Probabilistic Preferences (CPP), and the Rank-Order Centroid (ROC) method to prioritize CE strategies under uncertainty. The approach incorporates stakeholder input and probabilistic modeling to evaluate 20 alternatives across 10 criteria. Results : The analysis identified climate risk modeling, biogas utilization, and blockchain-enabled traceability as the most effective strategies for improving supply chain resilience. The model demonstrated strong robustness, maintaining 95% consistency in rankings under varied decision-making scenarios. Conclusions : This research presents a novel, structured method for supporting complex decisions in uncertain environments. By integrating CE principles and group decision-making tools, the study offers valuable guidance for policymakers and industry leaders seeking to build more resilient and sustainable bioethanol supply chains.

Keywords: circular economy; bioethanol; supply chain resilience; group decision making; probabilistic modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L8 L80 L81 L86 L87 L9 L90 L91 L92 L93 L98 L99 M1 M10 M11 M16 M19 R4 R40 R41 R49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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