Modeling Semiarid River–Aquifer Systems with Bayesian Networks and Artificial Neural Networks

Ana D. Maldonado, María Morales, Francisco Navarro, Francisco Sánchez-Martos and Pedro A. Aguilera
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Ana D. Maldonado: Department of Mathematics, University of Almería, 04120 Almería, Spain
María Morales: Department of Mathematics, University of Almería, 04120 Almería, Spain
Francisco Navarro: Department of Biology and Geology, University of Almería, 04120 Almería, Spain
Francisco Sánchez-Martos: Department of Biology and Geology, University of Almería, 04120 Almería, Spain
Pedro A. Aguilera: Department of Biology and Geology, University of Almería, 04120 Almería, Spain

Mathematics, 2021, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: In semiarid areas, precipitations usually appear in the form of big and brief floods, which affect the aquifer through water infiltration, causing groundwater temperature changes. These changes may have an impact on the physical, chemical and biological processes of the aquifer and, thus, modeling the groundwater temperature variations associated with stormy precipitation episodes is essential, especially since this kind of precipitation is becoming increasingly frequent in semiarid regions. In this paper, we compare the predictive performance of two popular tools in statistics and machine learning, namely Bayesian networks (BNs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in modeling groundwater temperature variation associated with precipitation events. More specifically, we trained a total of 2145 ANNs with different node configurations, from one to five layers. On the other hand, we trained three different BNs using different structure learning algorithms. We conclude that, while both tools are equivalent in terms of accuracy for predicting groundwater temperature drops, the computational cost associated with the estimation of Bayesian networks is significantly lower, and the resulting BN models are more versatile and allow a more detailed analysis.

Keywords: Bayesian networks; artificial neural networks; groundwater temperature; classification; semiarid areas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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