Mathematical Modeling and Methodology for Assessing the Pace of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation

Victor Orlov, Tatyana Ivanova, Tatyana Ladykova and Galina Sokolova
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Victor Orlov: Institute of Digital Technologies and Modeling in Construction, Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Yaroslavskoye Shosse, 26, 129337 Moscow, Russia
Tatyana Ivanova: Faculty of Economics, Chuvash State University Named I.N. Ulyanov, Moskovsky Prospect, 15, 428015 Cheboksary, Russia
Tatyana Ladykova: Faculty of Economics, Chuvash State University Named I.N. Ulyanov, Moskovsky Prospect, 15, 428015 Cheboksary, Russia
Galina Sokolova: Faculty of Economics, Chuvash State University Named I.N. Ulyanov, Moskovsky Prospect, 15, 428015 Cheboksary, Russia

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 11, 1-20

Abstract: The article develops the author’s methodology for assessing the rates of socio-economic development and their forecasting in the Russian Federation, which makes it possible to consider factors with heterogeneous metrics. For this, an index analysis of thirty-two indicators divided into seven macro-regional blocks (income, labor, business, ecology, society, prospects, finance) was carried out, integral indicators were calculated that characterize their changes and the pace of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation was determined. Further, using the means of mathematical modeling, a multifactorial mathematical model was built and tested in real-time, which makes it possible to obtain a high-quality predicted result. Based on the forecasts obtained, it can be stated that it is necessary to adjust certain indicators that actively influence the pace of development, which is a mathematical justification for making managerial decisions when developing strategies and programs related to socio-economic progress in the Russian Federation.

Keywords: mathematical modeling; forecasting; socio-economic development; assessment methodology; integral indicator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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