A (2+1)-Dimensional Fractional-Order Epidemic Model with Pulse Jumps for Omicron COVID-19 Transmission and Its Numerical Simulation

Wen-Jing Zhu, Shou-Feng Shen and Wen-Xiu Ma
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Wen-Jing Zhu: Affiliated Mental Health Center, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou Seventh People’s Hospital, Hangzhou 310013, China
Shou-Feng Shen: Department of Applied Mathematics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China
Wen-Xiu Ma: Department of Mathematics, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 14, 1-14

Abstract: In this paper, we would like to propose a (2+1)-dimensional fractional-order epidemic model with pulse jumps to describe the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. The problem of identifying the involved parameters in the proposed model is reduced to a minimization problem of a quadratic objective function, based on the reported data. Moreover, we perform numerical simulation to study the effect of the parameters in diverse fractional-order cases. The number of undiscovered cases can be calculated precisely to assess the severity of the outbreak. The results by numerical simulation show that the degree of accuracy is higher than the classical epidemic models. The regular testing protocol is very important to find the undiscovered cases in the beginning of the outbreak.

Keywords: epidemic model; fractional-order; Omicron COVID-19; pulse jump; numerical simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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