Tourist Arrival Forecasting Using Multiscale Mode Learning Model

Kaijian He, Don Wu and Yingchao Zou ()
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Kaijian He: College of Tourism, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
Don Wu: School of Tourism Management, Macao Institute of Tourism Studies, Macao, China
Yingchao Zou: College of Tourism, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 16, 1-12

Abstract: The forecasting of tourist arrival depends on the accurate modeling of prevalent data patterns found in tourist arrival, especially for daily tourist arrival, where tourist arrival changes are more complex and highly nonlinear. In this paper, a new multiscale mode learning-based tourist arrival forecasting model is proposed to exploit different multiscale data features in tourist arrival movement. Two popular Mode Decomposition models (MD) and the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model are introduced to model the multiscale data features in the tourist arrival data The data patterns at different scales are extracted using these two different MD models which dynamically decompose tourist arrival into the distinctive intrinsic mode function (IMF) data components. The convolutional neural network uses the deep network to further model the multiscale data structure of tourist arrivals, with the reduced dimensionality of key multiscale data features and finer modeling of nonlinearity in tourist arrival. Our empirical results using daily tourist arrival data show that the MD-CNN tourist arrival forecasting model significantly improves the forecasting reliability and accuracy.

Keywords: tourist arrival forecast; variational mode decomposition; empirical mode decomposition; multiscale analysis; deep learning model; convolutional neural network model; seasonal ARIMA; ARIMA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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