Stochastic Epidemic Model for COVID-19 Transmission under Intervention Strategies in China

Zin Thu Win, Mahmoud A. Eissa and Boping Tian ()
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Zin Thu Win: School of Mathematics, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China
Mahmoud A. Eissa: Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Menoufia University, Menoufia 32511, Egypt
Boping Tian: School of Mathematics, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 17, 1-17

Abstract: In this paper, we discuss an EIQJR model with stochastic perturbation. First, a globally positive solution of the proposed model has been discussed. In addition, the global asymptotic stability and exponential mean-square stability of the disease-free equilibrium have been proven under suitable conditions for our model. This means that the disease will die over time. We investigate the asymptotic behavior around the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model to show when the disease will prevail. Constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional method is crucial to our investigation. Parameter estimations and numerical simulations are performed to depict the transmission process of COVID-19 pandemic in China and to support analytical results.

Keywords: stochastic endemic model; pandemic COVID-19; disease-free equilibrium; endemic equilibrium; asymptotic behavior; stochastic Lyapunov function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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