Modelling the Potential Impact of Stigma on the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa

Siphokazi Princess Gatyeni, Faraimunashe Chirove and Farai Nyabadza ()
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Siphokazi Princess Gatyeni: Mathematics and Applied Mathematics Department, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2092, South Africa
Faraimunashe Chirove: Mathematics and Applied Mathematics Department, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2092, South Africa
Farai Nyabadza: Mathematics and Applied Mathematics Department, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2092, South Africa

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 18, 1-23

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to be a problem in South Africa. Individuals affected and infected by the disease suffer from stigma resulting in increased COVID-19 infections. In this paper, we developed a mathematical model to assess the effects of stigma on COVID-19 in South Africa, using low, moderate, and high stigma regimes in the population. The mathematical model was analysed and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of the COVID-19 model with stigma was determined. The model was then fitted to data of the four COVID-19 waves for the new daily infected cases, and the estimated parameter values from different waves are presented. The effects of stigma on COVID-19 waves were examined using the four stigma regimes (high, moderate, low, and stigma-free regimes). Our results revealed that stigma is instrumental in the increase in the number of COVID-19 infections. It is also a significant contributor to sustaining COVID-19 in the population and probably in other infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases. The results obtained can influence policy directions with respect to stigma and its impact on the transmission dynamics of diseases.

Keywords: COVID-19; stigma; modelling; global stability; basic reproduction number; sensitivity analysis; model fitting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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