Vaccination’s Role in Combating the Omicron Variant Outbreak in Thailand: An Optimal Control Approach

Jiraporn Lamwong, Puntani Pongsumpun (), I-Ming Tang and Napasool Wongvanich
Additional contact information
Jiraporn Lamwong: Department of Mathematics, School of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok 10520, Thailand
Puntani Pongsumpun: Department of Mathematics, School of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok 10520, Thailand
I-Ming Tang: Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
Napasool Wongvanich: Department of Instrumentation and Control Engineering, School of Engineering, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok 10520, Thailand

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 20, 1-29

Abstract: COVID-19 is the name of the new infectious disease which has reached the pandemic stage and is named after the coronavirus (COVs) which causes it. COV is a single-stranded RNA virus which in humans leads to respiratory tract symptoms which can lead to death in those with low immunities, particularly older people. In this study, a standard dynamic model for COVID-19 was proposed by comparing a simple model and the optimal control model to reduce the number of infected people and become a guideline to control the outbreak. Control strategies are the vaccination rate and vaccine-induced immunity. An analysis was performed to find an equilibrium point, the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) , and conditions that generate stability by using Lyapunov functions to prove the stability of the solution at the equilibrium point. Pontryagin’s maximum principle was used to find the optimal control condition. Moreover, sensitivity analysis of the parameters was performed to learn about the parameters that might affect the outbreak in order to be able to control the outbreak. According to the analysis, it is seen that the efficacy of vaccines ( b ) and the infection rate ( β a n , β s n , β a v , β s v ) will affect the increased (decreased) incidence of the outbreak. Numerical analyses were performed on the Omicron variant outbreak data collected from the Thailand Ministry of Health, whose analyses then indicated that the optimal control strategy could lead to planning management and policy setting to control the COVID-19 outbreak.

Keywords: COVID-19; optimal control; Lyapunov function; global stabilities; sensitivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/20/3899/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/20/3899/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:20:p:3899-:d:948368

Access Statistics for this article

Mathematics is currently edited by Ms. Emma He

More articles in Mathematics from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().