Stochastic Modeling of Within-Host Dynamics of Plasmodium Falciparum

Xiao Sun (), James M. McCaw and Pengxing Cao ()
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Xiao Sun: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
James M. McCaw: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Pengxing Cao: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 21, 1-14

Abstract: Malaria remains a major public health burden in South-East Asia and Africa. Mathematical models of within-host infection dynamics and drug action, developed in support of malaria elimination initiatives, have significantly advanced our understanding of the dynamics of infection and supported development of effective drug-treatment regimens. However, the mathematical models supporting these initiatives are predominately based on deterministic dynamics and therefore cannot capture stochastic phenomena such as extinction (no parasitized red blood cells) following treatment, with potential consequences for our interpretation of data sets in which recrudescence is observed. Here we develop a stochastic within-host infection model to study the growth, decline and possible stochastic extinction of parasitized red blood cells in malaria-infected human volunteers. We show that stochastic extinction can occur when the inoculation size is small or when the number of parasitized red blood cells reduces significantly after an antimalarial treatment. We further show that the drug related parameters, such as the maximum killing rate and half-maximum effective concentration, are the primary factors determining the probability of stochastic extinction following treatment, highlighting the importance of highly-efficacious antimalarials in increasing the probability of cure for the treatment of malaria patients.

Keywords: stochastic modeling; malaria; stochastic extinction; volunteer infection study (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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