Intelligent Prediction of Customer Churn with a Fused Attentional Deep Learning Model

Yunjie Liu, Mu Shengdong (), Gu Jijian () and Nadia Nedjah
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Yunjie Liu: Fudan Postdoctoral Fellowships in Applied Economic Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
Mu Shengdong: Collaborative Innovation Center of Green Development, Wuling Shan Region of Yangtze Normal University, Chongqing 408100, China
Gu Jijian: Chongqing Vocational College of Transportation, Chongqing 402200, China
Nadia Nedjah: Department of Electronics Engineering and Telecommunications, State University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 205513, Brazil

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 24, 1-16

Abstract: In recent years, churn rates in industries such as finance have increased, and the cost of acquiring new users is more than five times the cost of retaining existing users. To improve the intelligent prediction accuracy of customer churn rate, artificial intelligence is gradually used. In this paper, the bidirectional long short-term memory convolutional neural network (BiLSTM-CNN) model is integrated with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in parallel, which well solves the defective problem that RNNs and CNNs run separately, and it also solves the problem that the output results of a long short-term memory network (LSTM) layer in a densely-connected LSTM-CNN (DLCNN) model will ignore some local information when input to the convolutional layer. In order to explore whether the attention bidirectional long short-term memory convolutional neural network (AttnBLSTM-CNN) model can perform better than BiLSTM-CNN, this paper uses bank data to compare the two models. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the AttnBiLSTM-CNN model is improved by 0.2%, the churn rate is improved by 1.3%, the F1 value is improved by 0.0102, and the AUC value is improved by 0.0103 compared with the BLSTM model. Therefore, introducing the attention mechanism into the BiLSTM-CNN model can further improve the performance of the model. The improvement of the accuracy of the user churn prediction model can warn of the possibility of user churn in advance and take effective measures in advance to prevent user churn and improve the core competitiveness of financial institutions.

Keywords: user churn; attention mechanism; integration model; prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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