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Natural Gas Scarcity Risk in the Belt and Road Economies Based on Complex Network and Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis

Ruijin Du (), Qi Wu (), Ziwei Nan (), Gaogao Dong (), Lixin Tian () and Feifan Wu ()
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Ruijin Du: Center of Energy Development and Environmental Protection, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
Qi Wu: School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
Ziwei Nan: School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
Gaogao Dong: School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
Lixin Tian: School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China
Feifan Wu: School of Mathematical Sciences, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 5, 1-16

Abstract: Natural gas scarcity poses a significant risk to the global economy. The risk of production loss due to natural gas scarcity can be transferred to downstream economies through globalized supply chains. Therefore, it is important to quantify and analyze how natural gas scarcity in some regions affects the Belt and Road (B&R) economies. The embodied natural gas scarcity risks (EGSRs) of B&R economies are assessed and the EGSR transmission network is constructed. The built network shows a small-world nature. This illustrates that any interruption in key countries will quickly spread to neighboring countries, potentially affecting the global economy. The top countries, including Turkey, China, Ukraine, and India are identified in EGSR exports, which also have relatively high values of closeness centrality. The findings illustrate that the shortage of natural gas supply in these countries may have a significant impact on downstream countries or sectors and the resulting economic losses spread rapidly. These countries are critical to the resilience of the B&R economies to natural gas scarcity. The top nations, including Turkmenistan, Macedonia, and Georgia are also identified in EGSR imports, highlighting their vulnerability to natural gas scarcity. Further, the community analysis of the network provides a fresh perspective for formulating fair and reasonable allocation policies of natural gas resources and minimizing the large-scale spread of economic losses caused by natural gas scarcity.

Keywords: the Belt and Road; multi-regional input-output model; embodied natural gas scarcity risk; complex network analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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