Analyzing an Epidemic of Human Infections with Two Strains of Zoonotic Virus

Yongxue Chen, Hui Zhang, Jingyu Wang, Cheng Li, Ning Yi and Yongxian Wen
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Yongxue Chen: College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
Hui Zhang: College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
Jingyu Wang: College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
Cheng Li: College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
Ning Yi: College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China
Yongxian Wen: College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 7, 1-27

Abstract: Due to the existence and variation of various viruses, an epidemic in which different strains spread at the same time will occur. here, an avian–human epidemic model with two strain viruses are established and analyzed. Both theoretical and simulation results reveal that the mixed infections intensify the epidemic and the dynamics become more complex and sensitive. There are six equilibria. The trivial equilibrium point is a high-order singular point and will undergo the transcritical bifurcations to bifurcate three equilibria. The existence and stability of equilibria mainly depend on five thresholds. A bifurcation portrait for the existence and stability of equilibria is presented. Simulations suggest that the key control measure is to develop the identification technology to eliminate the poultry infected with a high pathogenic virus preferentially, then the infected poultry with a low pathogenic virus in the recruitment and on farms. Controlling contact between human and poultry can effectively restrain the epidemic and controlling contagions in poultry can avoid great infection in humans.

Keywords: the mixed infections; equilibra; threshold; stability; simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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