Robust Parametric Identification for ARMAX Models with Non-Gaussian and Coloured Noise: A Survey

Jesica Escobar and Alexander Poznyak
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Jesica Escobar: Instituto Politecnico Nacional ESIME Zacatenco, Unidad Profesional Adolfo Lopez Mateos, Av. IPN S/N, Mexico City 07738, Mexico
Alexander Poznyak: Department of Automatic Control, CINVESTAV-IPN A.P. 14-740, Mexico City 07000, Mexico

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 8, 1-38

Abstract: In this paper the Cramer-Rao information bound for ARMAX (Auto-Regression-Moving-Average-Models-with-Exogenuos-inputs) under non-Gaussian noise is derived. It is shown that the direct application of the Least Squares Method (LSM) leads to incorrect (shifted) parameter estimates. This inconsistency can be corrected by the implementation of the parallel usage of the MLMW (Maximum Likelihood Method with Whitening) procedure, applied to all measurable variables of the model, and a nonlinear residual transformation using the information on the distribution density of a non-Gaussian noise, participating in Moving Average structure. The design of the corresponding parameter-estimator, realizing the suggested MLMW-procedure is discussed in details. It is shown that this method is asymptotically optimal, that is, reaches this information bound. If the noise distribution belongs to some given class, then the Huber approach (min-max version of MLM) may be effectively applied. A numerical example illustrates the suggested approach.

Keywords: parameter estimation; least squares method; whitening filter; Fisher information; maximum likelihood method; nonlinear residual transformation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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