A Comparative Study of Forecasting Electricity Consumption Using Machine Learning Models

Madeline Hui Li Lee, Yee Chee Ser, Ganeshsree Selvachandran, Pham Huy Thong, Le Cuong, Le Hoang Son, Nguyen Trung Tuan and Vassilis C. Gerogiannis
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Madeline Hui Li Lee: Department of Actuarial Science and Applied Statistics, Faculty of Business & Management, UCSI University, Jalan Menara Gading, Cheras, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia
Yee Chee Ser: Department of Actuarial Science and Applied Statistics, Faculty of Business & Management, UCSI University, Jalan Menara Gading, Cheras, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia
Ganeshsree Selvachandran: Department of Actuarial Science and Applied Statistics, Faculty of Business & Management, UCSI University, Jalan Menara Gading, Cheras, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia
Pham Huy Thong: VNU Information Technology Institute, Vietnam National University, Hanoi 03000, Vietnam
Le Cuong: VNU Information Technology Institute, Vietnam National University, Hanoi 03000, Vietnam
Le Hoang Son: VNU Information Technology Institute, Vietnam National University, Hanoi 03000, Vietnam
Nguyen Trung Tuan: School of Information Technology and Digital Economics, National Economic University, Hanoi 100000, Vietnam
Vassilis C. Gerogiannis: Department of Digital Systems, Faculty of Technology, University of Thessaly, Geopolis, 41500 Larissa, Greece

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 8, 1-23

Abstract: Production of electricity from the burning of fossil fuels has caused an increase in the emission of greenhouse gases. In the long run, greenhouse gases cause harm to the environment. To reduce these gases, it is important to accurately forecast electricity production, supply and consumption. Forecasting of electricity consumption is, in particular, useful for minimizing problems of overproduction and oversupply of electricity. This research study focuses on forecasting electricity consumption based on time series data using different artificial intelligence and metaheuristic methods. The aim of the study is to determine which model among the artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), least squares support vector machines (LSSVMs) and fuzzy time series (FTS) produces the highest level of accuracy in forecasting electricity consumption. The variables considered in this research include the monthly electricity consumption over the years for different countries. The monthly electricity consumption data for seven countries, namely, Norway, Switzerland, Malaysia, Egypt, Algeria, Bulgaria and Kenya, for 10 years were used in this research. The performance of all of the models was evaluated and compared using error metrics such as the root mean squared error (RMSE), average forecasting error (AFE) and performance parameter (PP). The differences in the results obtained via the different methods are analyzed and discussed, and it is shown that the different models performed better for different countries in different forecasting periods. Overall, it was found that the FTS model performed the best for most of the countries studied compared to the other three models. The research results can allow electricity management companies to have better strategic planning when deciding on the optimal levels of electricity production and supply, with the overall aim of preventing surpluses or shortages in the electricity supply.

Keywords: electricity consumption; artificial neural network; adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system; least squares support vector machines; fuzzy time series; fuzzy system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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