Reliability Modelling of Pipeline Failure under the Impact of Submarine Slides-Copula Method

Laifu Song, Hao Ying, Wei Wang, Ning Fan and Xueming Du
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Laifu Song: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Hao Ying: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China
Wei Wang: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China
Ning Fan: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China
Xueming Du: School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China

Mathematics, 2022, vol. 10, issue 9, 1-25

Abstract: The instability of seabed slope sediments is the main factor influencing the safety of marine resource development. Therefore, to ensure the safe operation of submarine pipelines under complex and uncertain seabed rock and soil conditions, a reliability model was developed to elucidate the trend of impact-related pipeline damage due to submarine slides. Then, a risk assessment of the damage process of submarine slides impacting pipelines was conducted, which is of great significance for the in-depth safety assessment of pipelines impacted by submarine slides. Based on the copula function, a joint probability distribution model considering the correlation among risk variables was established for rational correlation characterization. A probability analysis method of impact-related pipeline damage attributed to submarine slides based on the copula function was proposed. The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method was employed to simulate the random uncertainty in limited observation values and accurately determine the reliability of safe pipeline operation under the action of submarine slides. The conclusions were as follows: (1) Based on the copula function, a joint probability distribution model of risk variables with any marginal distribution function and related structure could be developed. (2) The copula function could reasonably characterize relevant nonnormal distribution characteristics of risk variables and could simulate samples conforming to the distribution pattern of the risk variables. (3) The failure probability calculated with the traditional independent normal distribution model was very low, which could result in a notable overestimation of the reliability of submarine pipelines.

Keywords: submarine slides; submarine pipelines; copula function; reliability; slide–pipeline interaction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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