On Study of the Occurrence of Earth-Size Planets in Kepler Mission Using Spatial Poisson Model

Hong-Ding Yang (), Yun-Huan Lee and Che-Yang Lin
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Hong-Ding Yang: Institute of Statistics, National University of Kaohsiung, Kaohsiung 81148, Taiwan
Yun-Huan Lee: Department of Finance, Ming Chuan University, Taipei 11103, Taiwan
Che-Yang Lin: Department of Business Administration, Yuanpei University of Medical Technology, Hsinchu 30015, Taiwan

Mathematics, 2023, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-14

Abstract: The problem of determining the occurrence rate for Earth-size planets orbiting Sun-like stars is emerging in the universe. We propose a methodology based on a spatial Poisson regression model with model parameters being inferred by the Bayesian framework to investigate this occurrence rate. We analyzed an exoplanet sample and its corresponding survey completeness data. Our results suggest that 46% of Sun-like stars have an Earth-size (i.e., 1–2 times Earth radii) planet with an orbital period of 5–100 days. Furthermore, we are also interested in the occurrence rate of Earth analogs hosted by GK dwarf stars (i.e., orbital period of 200–400 days and size 1–2 times Earth radii). After completeness correction, we obtained an occurrence rate of 0.18% based on the proposed methodology.

Keywords: conditional autoregressive model; Markov chain Monte Carlo; occurrence rate; spatial Poisson model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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