Modeling of Project Portfolio Risk Evolution and Response under the Influence of Interactions

Yipei Zhang (), Jiale Liu, Xiaoyan Xie, Chenshuo Wang and Libiao Bai
Additional contact information
Yipei Zhang: School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Jiale Liu: School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Xiaoyan Xie: School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Chenshuo Wang: School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
Libiao Bai: School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China

Mathematics, 2023, vol. 11, issue 19, 1-20

Abstract: Due to dynamic changes in both internal and external environments, the risk evolution of the project portfolio (PP) becomes extremely complicated, thereby increasing the difficulties of effective risk response. In particular, the real-time influence of risk interactions on the evolution of project portfolio risk (PPR) often goes unnoticed. Meanwhile, risk contagiousness is completely ignored in risk response. To tackle this challenge, this study proposes a PPR evolution and response (PPRER) model by improving the Barrat–Barthelemy–Vespignani (BBV) model and by introducing the evolutionary dynamics method into the PPR response research. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed model are verified through a numerical illustration. Computational results demonstrate that the proposed model can simulate the evolution process of PPRs under the influence of their interactions and give a snapshot of the real-time interactive relationship between PPRs. Based on the obtained results, decision-makers can take effective risk responses by identifying critical strategy intrusion nodes at any time in the evolution process.

Keywords: project portfolio risk evolution; project portfolio risk response; risk interaction; BBV model; PPRER model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/19/4091/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/19/4091/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:19:p:4091-:d:1248899

Access Statistics for this article

Mathematics is currently edited by Ms. Emma He

More articles in Mathematics from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().