Autoregression, First Order Phase Transition, and Stochastic Resonance: A Comparison of Three Models for Forest Insect Outbreaks

Vladislav Soukhovolsky, Anton Kovalev (), Yulia Ivanova and Olga Tarasova
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Vladislav Soukhovolsky: V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
Anton Kovalev: Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
Yulia Ivanova: Institute of Biophysics SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
Olga Tarasova: Department of Ecology and Nature Management, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk 660041, Russia

Mathematics, 2023, vol. 11, issue 19, 1-19

Abstract: Three models of abundance dynamics for forest insects that depict the development of outbreak populations were analyzed. We studied populations of the Siberian silkmoth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv. in Siberia and the Far East of Russia, as well as a population of the pine looper Bupalus piniarius L. in Thuringia, Germany. The first model (autoregression) characterizes the mechanism where current population density is dependent on population densities in previous k years. The second model considers an outbreak as analogous to a first-order phase transition in physical systems and characterizes the outbreak as a transition through a potential barrier from a low-density state to a high-density state. The third model treats an outbreak as an effect of stochastic resonance influenced by a cyclical factor such as solar activity and the “noise” of weather parameters. The discussion focuses on the prediction effectiveness of abundance dynamics and outbreak development for each model.

Keywords: forest insect; population; population dynamics; population outbreak; model; autoregression; phase transition; stochastic resonance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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