Simulation Cognitive Modeling Approach to the Regional Sustainable Complex System Development for Improving Quality of Life

Anna Firsova (), Galina Gorelova, Elena L. Makarova, Elena A. Makarova and Galina Chernyshova
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Anna Firsova: Faculty of Economics, Saratov State University, 83, Astrakhanskaya Str., 410600 Saratov, Russia
Galina Gorelova: Institute of Management in Economic, Environmental and Social Systems, Southern Federal University, 105/42 Bolshaya Sadovaya Str., 344006 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Elena L. Makarova: Institute of Management in Economic, Environmental and Social Systems, Southern Federal University, 105/42 Bolshaya Sadovaya Str., 344006 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Elena A. Makarova: Faculty of Psychology, Pedagogies and Defectology, Don State Technical University, 1 Gagarin Sq., 344000 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Galina Chernyshova: Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technologies, Saratov State University, 83, Astrakhanskaya Str., 410600 Saratov, Russia

Mathematics, 2023, vol. 11, issue 20, 1-22

Abstract: This article presents study results of the region’s sustainable development possibility, thus improving the population’s life quality using cognitive simulation methods of complex systems. The main theoretical provisions of cognitive modeling developed and tested earlier in various socioeconomic system modeling are briefly outlined. The cognitive modeling application’s mathematical apparatus and CMCS software No. 2018661506 system were developed using quantitative data from one of Russia’s southern regions (Rostov oblast). The task was to study the region, model, understand, explain, and develop possible situation development scenarios, and foresee this complex system’s possible future outcome. The main statistical socioeconomic indicators of the state region were studied and processed. Data analysis necessary for developing and researching a cognitive model is given. The regional economic mechanism cognitive model is a functional graph consisting of quantitative and qualitative concepts. Between them, relationships are given in the form of functions, which is the novelty of research. The results of several scenarios of impulse modeling are presented, making it possible to predict future desirable and undesirable processes in the system. Scenario analysis was carried out, making it possible to propose a number of recommendations for the region’s sustainable development. A direction for the region’s development of further cognitive research is proposed.

Keywords: complex system; applied economics; scenario analysis; sustainable development; data analysis; cognitive simulation; quality of life; computer modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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