Stochastic Dynamics of a Virus Variant Epidemic Model with Double Inoculations

Hui Chen, Xuewen Tan (), Jun Wang, Wenjie Qin and Wenhui Luo
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Hui Chen: Department of Mathematics, Yunnan Minzu University, 2929, Yuehua Street, Chenggong District, Kunming 650500, China
Xuewen Tan: Department of Mathematics, Yunnan Minzu University, 2929, Yuehua Street, Chenggong District, Kunming 650500, China
Jun Wang: Department of Mathematics, Yunnan Minzu University, 2929, Yuehua Street, Chenggong District, Kunming 650500, China
Wenjie Qin: Department of Mathematics, Yunnan Minzu University, 2929, Yuehua Street, Chenggong District, Kunming 650500, China
Wenhui Luo: Department of Mathematics, Yunnan Minzu University, 2929, Yuehua Street, Chenggong District, Kunming 650500, China

Mathematics, 2023, vol. 11, issue 7, 1-29

Abstract: In this paper, we establish a random epidemic model with double vaccination and spontaneous variation of the virus. Firstly, we prove the global existence and uniqueness of positive solutions for a stochastic epidemic model. Secondly, we prove the threshold R 0 * can be used to control the stochastic dynamics of the model. If R 0 * < 0 , the disease will be extinct with probability 1; whereas if R 0 * > 0 , the disease can almost certainly continue to exist, and there is a unique stable distribution. Finally, we give some numerical examples to verify our theoretical results. Most of the existing studies prove the stochastic dynamics of the model by constructing Lyapunov functions. However, the construction of a Lyapunov function of higher-order models is extremely complex, so this method is not applicable to all models. In this paper, we use the definition method suitable for more models to prove the stationary distribution. Most of the stochastic infectious disease models studied now are second-order or third-order, and cannot accurately describe infectious diseases. In order to solve this kind of problem, this paper adopts a higher price five-order model.

Keywords: epidemic model; vaccine inoculation; extinction; stationary distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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