Strategic Electricity Production Planning of Turkey via Mixed Integer Programming Based on Time Series Forecasting

Gökay Yörük, Ugur Bac, Fatma Yerlikaya-Özkurt and Kamil Demirberk Ünlü ()
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Gökay Yörük: Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Atilim University, 06830 Ankara, Turkey
Ugur Bac: Department of Industrial Engineering, Atilim University, 06830 Ankara, Turkey
Fatma Yerlikaya-Özkurt: Department of Industrial Engineering, Atilim University, 06830 Ankara, Turkey
Kamil Demirberk Ünlü: Department of Industrial Engineering, Atilim University, 06830 Ankara, Turkey

Mathematics, 2023, vol. 11, issue 8, 1-20

Abstract: This study examines Turkey’s energy planning in terms of strategic planning, energy policy, electricity production planning, technology selection, and environmental policies. A mixed integer optimization model is proposed for strategic electricity planning in Turkey. A set of energy resources is considered simultaneously in this research, and in addition to cost minimization, different strategic level policies, such as CO 2 emission reduction policies, energy resource import/export restriction policies, and renewable energy promotion policies, are also considered. To forecast electricity demand over the planning horizon, a variety of forecasting techniques, including regression methods, exponential smoothing, Winter’s method, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average methods, are used, and the best method is chosen using various error measures. The optimization model constructed for Turkey’s Strategic Electricity Planning is obtained for two different planning intervals. The findings indicate that the use of renewable energy generation options, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric alternatives, will increase significantly, while the use of fossil fuels in energy generation will decrease sharply. The findings of this study suggest a gradual increase in investments in renewable energy-based electricity production strategies are required to eventually replace fossil fuel alternatives. This change not only reduces investment, operation, and maintenance costs, but also reduces emissions in the long term.

Keywords: time series forecasting; strategy planning; electricity production; integer programming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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