EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Climate Risks and Forecasting Stock Market Returns in Advanced Economies over a Century

Mehmet Balcilar, David Gabauer, Rangan Gupta and Christian Pierdzioch

Mathematics, 2023, vol. 11, issue 9, 1-21

Abstract: In this study, we contribute to the rapidly growing climate-finance literature by shedding light on the question of whether climate risks have predictive value for stock market returns. We measure climate risks in terms of both the change in the northern hemisphere temperature anomaly and its volatility and the change in the global temperature anomaly and its volatility. We study monthly data for eight advanced countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US)). Our sample period runs from 1916 to 2021. We control for cross-market spillovers of stock market returns and volatility as well as other risks including oil-price returns and volatility, geopolitical risks, and the gold-to-silver price ratio as a measure of investor risk aversion. Given this large array of control variables, we apply the Lasso estimator to trace out the incremental predictive value of climate risks for subsequent stock market returns. We find that climate risks do not have systematic predictive value for subsequent stock market returns. We then extend our analysis in two ways. First, we show that climate risks have short-term out-of-sample predictive value for the connectedness of stock market returns. Second, we show that climate risks have predictive power for stock market returns when we study monthly historical UK data for the sample period from 1772 to 2021.

Keywords: international stock markets; climate risks; returns forecasting; stock market connectedness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/9/2077/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/9/2077/ (text/html)

Related works:
Working Paper: Climate Risks and Forecasting Stock-Market Returns in Advanced Economies Over a Century (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:9:p:2077-:d:1134393

Access Statistics for this article

Mathematics is currently edited by Ms. Emma He

More articles in Mathematics from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().

 
Page updated 2025-04-07
Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:9:p:2077-:d:1134393