Incorporating Multi-Source Market Sentiment and Price Data for Stock Price Prediction

Kui Fu and Yanbin Zhang ()
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Kui Fu: School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Yanbin Zhang: School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 10, 1-26

Abstract: The problem of stock price prediction has been a hot research issue. Stock price is influenced by various factors at the same time, and market sentiment is one of the most critical factors. Financial texts such as news and investor comments reflect investor sentiment in the stock market and influence market movements. Previous research models have struggled to accurately mine multiple sources of market sentiment information originating from the Internet and traditional sentiment analysis models are challenging to quantify and combine indicator data from market data and multi-source sentiment data. Therefore, we propose a BERT-LLA stock price prediction model incorporating multi-source market sentiment and technical analysis. In the sentiment analysis module, we propose a semantic similarity and sector heat-based model to screen for related sectors and use fine-tuned BERT models to calculate the text sentiment index, transforming the text data into sentiment index time series data. In the technical indicator calculation module, technical indicator time series are calculated using market data. Finally, in the prediction module, we combine the sentiment index time series and technical indicator time series and employ a two-layer LSTM network prediction model with an integrated attention mechanism to predict stock close price. Our experiment results show that the BERT-LLA model can accurately capture market sentiment and has a strong practicality and forecasting ability in analyzing market sentiment and stock price prediction.

Keywords: BERT; sentiment analysis; long short-term memory; attention mechanism; stock price prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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