Mathematical Modeling and Transmission Dynamics Analysis of the African Swine Fever Virus in Benin

Sèna Yannick Ayihou, Têlé Jonas Doumatè, Cedric Hameni Nkwayep, Samuel Bowong Tsakou and Romain Glèlè Kakai ()
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Sèna Yannick Ayihou: Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 04 P.O. Box 1525, Benin
Têlé Jonas Doumatè: Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 04 P.O. Box 1525, Benin
Cedric Hameni Nkwayep: Laboratory of Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Douala, Douala P.O. Box 24157, Cameroon
Samuel Bowong Tsakou: Laboratory of Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Douala, Douala P.O. Box 24157, Cameroon
Romain Glèlè Kakai: Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 04 P.O. Box 1525, Benin

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 11, 1-30

Abstract: African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in many African countries, and its control is challenging because no vaccine or treatment is available to date. Nowadays, mathematical modeling is a key tool in infectious disease studies, complementing traditional biological investigations. In this study, we propose and analyze a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of African swine fever (ASF) in Benin that considers the free-living virus in the environment. We provide the theoretical results of the model. The study of the model is conducted by first proving that the model is well posed by showing the positivity and the boundedness of solutions as well as the existence and uniqueness of the solution. We compute the control reproduction number R c as well as the basic reproduction number R 0 , which helps to analyze the extinction or the persistence of the disease in the pig population. We provide the global attractivity of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium and study their stabilities. After, we estimate some unknown parameters from the proposed model, and the sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the parameters that influence the control reproduction number. Finally, through numerical simulations, in the current situation, we find that R 0 = 2.78 , which implies that the disease will not die out without any control measures and R c = 1.55 showing that the eradication of the disease highly depends on the control measures taken to reduce disease transmission.

Keywords: infectious disease; mathematical models; stability; sensitivity analysis; numerical simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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