The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on China’s Economic and Financial Cycle: Application of a Structural Vector Autoregression Model Based on High-Frequency Data

Zhenzhong Fan and Xing Chen ()
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Zhenzhong Fan: School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
Xing Chen: School of Economics and Management, Institute of Carbon Peak and Neutrality, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 13, 1-25

Abstract: With the occurrence of the global financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. unconventional monetary policy affected the Chinese market. Based on a monthly data sample from 2008M1 to 2015M12, in this paper we identify U.S. and Chinese monetary policy shocks by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with multi-external instrumental variables along with principal component analysis (PCA) combined with high-frequency financial market data. The empirical results show that the unconventional monetary policies had a negative effect on China’s inflation and output due to the signal effect, and China’s stock and commodity markets increased in the short term. During the same period, China’s monetary policy had a greater impact on the domestic economy and financial markets. The conclusion of this paper provides a significant reference for relevant departments to make decisions amidst the new wave of unconventional U.S. monetary policies due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: SVAR–IV model; high-frequency data; unconventional monetary policy; economic and financial cycle; multi-external instrumental variables; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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