A New Student Performance Prediction Method Based on Belief Rule Base with Automated Construction

Mingyuan Liu, Wei He (), Guohui Zhou and Hailong Zhu
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Mingyuan Liu: School of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China
Wei He: School of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China
Guohui Zhou: School of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China
Hailong Zhu: School of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 15, 1-23

Abstract: Student performance prediction (SPP) is a pivotal task in educational analytics, enabling proactive interventions and optimized resource allocation by educators. Traditional SPP models are often hindered by their complexity and lack of interpretability. This study introduces a novel SPP framework, the Belief Rule Base with automated construction (Auto–BRB), designed to address these issues. Firstly, reference values are derived through data mining techniques. The model employs an IF–THEN rule-based system integrated with evidential reasoning to ensure both transparency and interpretability. Secondly, parameter optimization is achieved using the Projected Covariance Matrix Adaptive Evolution Strategy (P–CMA–ES), significantly enhancing model accuracy. Moreover, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is then applied to fine-tune the balance between model accuracy and complexity. Finally, case studies on SPP have shown that the Auto–BRB model has an advantage over traditional models in terms of accuracy, while maintaining good interpretability. Therefore, Auto–BRB has excellent application effects in educational data analysis.

Keywords: student performance prediction; belief rule base; data mining; evidential reasoning; evolutionary strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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