The Contagion of Debt Default Risk in Energy Enterprises Considering Carbon Price Fluctuations

Lei Wang, Xuan Jiang, Tingqiang Chen () and Ruirui Zhu
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Lei Wang: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Xuan Jiang: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Tingqiang Chen: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Ruirui Zhu: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 17, 1-27

Abstract: Under the constraints of low-carbon transformation goals, energy enterprises have significantly increased their debt default risk levels due to carbon price fluctuations. This article first analyzes the contagion mechanism of debt default risk among energy enterprises, and based on this, constructs a debt default risk contagion model among energy enterprises considering carbon price fluctuations, and then simulates and analyzes the evolution characteristics of debt default risk contagion among energy enterprises. The research results indicate that: (1) As the proportion of carbon emission cost increment and investor sentiment index increase, the stability of the debt network of energy enterprises strengthens. As the ratio of commercial credit among energy enterprises and influence of energy enterprises increase, the impact of debt risk gradually intensifies. (2) The investor sentiment index has a strengthening effect on the influence of energy enterprises, the proportion of commercial credit among energy enterprises, and the proportion of carbon emission cost increment. The commercial credit ratio between energy enterprises and its influence has a mutually reinforcing effect. (3) The investor sentiment index has suppressed debt default risk for various energy enterprises. The joint risk suppression effect of the proportion of carbon emission cost increment and the influence of energy enterprises in petroleum and petrochemical enterprises is more prominent. The joint risk constraint ability between the proportion of carbon emission cost increment and investor sentiment index in coal enterprises is stronger.

Keywords: fluctuations in carbon prices; energy inter-enterprise network; debt default; risk contagion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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