Online Investor Sentiment via Machine Learning

Zongwu Cai and Pixiong Chen ()
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Zongwu Cai: Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA
Pixiong Chen: Division of Model Risk Management, Wells Fargo Bank, Charlotte, NC 28202, USA

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 20, 1-14

Abstract: In this paper, we propose utilizing machine learning methods to determine the expected aggregated stock market risk premium based on online investor sentiment and employing the multifold forward-validation method to select the relevant hyperparameters. Our empirical studies provide strong evidence that some machine learning methods, such as extreme gradient boosting or random forest, show significant predictive ability in terms of their out-of-sample performances with high-dimensional investor sentiment proxies. They also outperform the traditional linear models, which shows a possible unobserved nonlinear relationship between online investor sentiment and risk premium. Moreover, this predictability based on online investor sentiment has a better economic value, so it improves portfolio performance for investors who need to decide the optimal asset allocation in terms of the certainty equivalent return gain and the Sharpe ratio.

Keywords: asset return; machine learning; multifold forward-validation; nonlinearity; portfolio allocations; predictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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